Daniel Foch on YouTube
Why CREA says this will be the worst year for home sales in Canada this cycle (CREA stats update)
Published July 15, 2026
About this video
CREA Downgrades 2026 Sales Forecast as Prices Stabilize: What June Data Really Means
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) downgraded its 2026 home sales forecast even as June 2026 showed early signs of stabilization: sales rose 0.5% month over month for a third straight month, new listings fell, months of inventory held at 4.8, and the national House Price Index was flat for the first time since January 2025 (though still down 3.6% year over year). The script argues much of the improvement is seasonal and highly regional, with Ontario and BC still weak—especially condos—while many other provinces remain well above 2022 levels. CREA now projects 463,000 sales in 2026 (-1.4% vs. 2025) and a national average price of $686,000 (+1.1%), pushing stronger recovery expectations into 2027. It also highlights the Bank of Canada holding its policy rate at 2.25%, the importance of bond-driven fixed mortgage rates, falling rents reducing buy incentives, and the need to focus on local market conditions.
00:00 June Market Snapshot
00:33 Seasonality Versus Recovery
01:48 Sales Beat Last Year
02:45 Supply Tightening Signals
03:34 Inventory And Balance Metrics
05:01 Prices HPI Versus Average
06:34 Local Markets Diverge
08:57 CREA Forecast Downgrade
10:16 Buyer Seller Playbook
12:51 Inflation And Real Returns
14:49 Rates Bonds And Qualification
17:20 Rents Versus Buying Incentives
18:44 Wrap Up And Questions
Put this video to work
Run the numbers on your own deal — free.